Why the order of returns matters more than the average
Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently. The difference is which years were the bad ones — and it is the single most underrated risk in drawdown.
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Most people have more arrangements than they remember, and the forgotten ones are not always the small ones. What to look for, and the guarantees that get thrown away by accident.
Automatic enrolment means a job that lasted eight months can leave a pension behind. Over a working life that produces a scatter of arrangements with different providers, different charges and — the part that matters — different terms.
The instinct is to tidy: bring everything into one modern plan with a clean app and a single statement. Often that is right. Sometimes it quietly destroys something valuable.
Older contracts occasionally carry a guaranteed annuity rate — a promise to convert the fund into income at a rate written decades ago, frequently far better than anything available now. Others carry guaranteed minimum pensions, or bonus structures that only pay on maturity.
None of these are advertised on a statement. They appear in the policy terms, which is why the first job is always to ask each provider directly, in writing, what guarantees the contract carries and what is lost on transfer.
A provider’s headline charge is rarely the whole cost. Underneath it there may be fund charges, platform charges and transaction costs, and the total can be several times the number on the front page.
Comparing two pensions properly means comparing total cost against what each actually provides. A cheaper plan that loses a guarantee is not cheaper.
The Pension Tracing Service will find schemes you have lost touch with. Old payslips, P60s and employment records fill in the rest. Then write to each provider and ask four questions: the current value, the total annual cost, the death benefits, and any guarantees that would be lost on transfer.
That list is the foundation of any sensible decision. Without it, consolidation is a guess.
This article is general information, not personal advice. Tax and regulatory rules change, and what is right for one household can be wrong for another. Take advice on your own circumstances before acting.
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Two retirements with identical average returns can end very differently. The difference is which years were the bad ones — and it is the single most underrated risk in drawdown.
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